This is due to the now expected squall line, as opposed to individual supercells, which raise the tornado risk.
That said, the Storm Prediction Center has not issued weather maps yet, but below is today’s real-time risk with radar.
We have obtained short range images from the HPC, and below are the forecasts from 7pm CDT, as well as 1am CDT of Monday’s forecast.
This image shows the cold front creating a traditional squall line as a cooler air mass moves in over the area. This was not expected 24 hours ago. 24 hours ago, we were expecting supercells to form out ahead of the cold front, with a weak squall line come with the cold front.
By now, the cold front has hit a warm air mass and has created a defined squall line as seen in the picture. (SQLN means Squall Line)
The main thing needed to enforce this new thinking are the models, which will be issued in a later post.
The link will be posted here on this post as well. Click here for part 2.