>April 4 2011 Severe Weather Situation

>There are several watches out right now as a cold front moves across the US, producing severe storms. We will go in-depth into these watches.

There is a watch spanning from the Gulf Coast in Louisiana and into Mississippi. This is a tornado watch, which will expire at 6:00 pm CDT. These storms are not expected to produce a significant threat for tornadoes, but they will be somewhat of a concern.

This is a watch issued for the area just above the previously issued watch. This watch goes to 6pm CDT.
For both watches, many parameters are not on par to produce significant storms. The reasons are…
1. Lapse rates are low.
2. CAPE values max out at 3000 in only a couple spots onshore.
3. Wind shear isn’t terribly high.
4. There is no cap, thus stabilizing the atmosphere.
After reviewing these factors, it appears to me the storms will weaken as they continue east and will fade below severe limits tomorrow on the Eastern Seaboard.

This is the last watch currently issued. These storms are more broken up and not as much of a severe threat. This watch is a severe thunderstorms watch that goes until 9 pm EDT.
This storm has its perks, like
1. Wind shear is higher within the storms.
2. Supercell composites are fairly high
3. Some capping to the east.

However, this storm also has its downs, like
1. Very low CAPE values.
2. Not a direct flow from the low level jet stream.

I agree with the decision for this watch to last longer, as some parameters are in agreement that are crucial for storms.
We will monitor these situations as they unfold.

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