>March 15 2011 Forecast Discussion

>FORECAST DISCUSSION

This is the image from the 18z GFS 24 hours from now.

High pressure over the Mississippi area will prevent any storms from reaching the area, but some showers and possibly storms can be expected as a fairly cool air mass slides across the nation’s midsection. These storms that could develop would not be severe.
Into the Plains, tight isobars will allow for a fairly gusty day tomorrow as high pressure mentioned above pumps up warm air to the low pressure system in Canada. So with that influx of warm air will be windy.
Main concern with this forecast discussion is somewhat strong low pressure system in Canada. This system will be begin manipulating the high pressure stationed in Mississippi to allow dry, warm air from the Arizona area to collide with moist, warm air from the Gulf. The dry air and humid air will collide to make a somewhat more moist environment across the northern US portions. As the low pressure system moves off east, it will pull the warm air with it. Tight isobars in the Plains mentioned above will allow for a fast transport of warm, humid Gulf air. Drier Mexico air will also integrate into that air, leaving still only a relatively moist environment. The strength of this low will allow for that open flow of warm air to continue. As that low strengthens, the high pressure won’t need to be manipulated anymore, and may begin to make way for the low pressure. I predict the high to begin and move offshore at some point as the warm air transport area is dragged across the US.
Other Concerns include the somewhat cool air mass stationed over the Northeast and Carolinas. Should that air mass still keep its cool, the warm air mass may begin to spout rain and storms in the Carolinas region. However, this 18z GFS run indicates high pressure mentioned above will move north and eliminate that air mass as the warm air transport and low pressure system move east. As that warm air transport system works east, the Midwest can be prepared for a windy day as the transport moves overhead. However, it will be a welcome relief from frosty mornings recently experienced.
New Forecast Discussion will be issued tomorrow.
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