>Model Comparison March 1st

>This morning’s discussion

Model Analyses

-ECMWF: Has strong low track through South IL with rain/snow line in WI/IL border. South Track.
-NOGAPS: NOGAPS goes into Central IL heading northeast.
-GEM: Takes ECMWF track, but rain/snow line collapses down into Central IL. South Track.
-GFS: Takes strong low pressure through North IL. North Track.
-DGEX: Takes Low through Central IL with rain/snow line in WI/IL border. Arctic air quickly follows, making backside precip all snow.
Consensus: DGEX and NOGAPS are in good agreement with each other on a middle track, while ECMWF and GEM are in agreement with each other. Will have to make GFS an outlier, and at this time, will go with a NOGAPS/ECMWF solution.
Current Model Analyses with differences
-ECMWF: Low tracks through Central IL. Rain Snow line remains in WI/IL border.
-NOGAPS: Much weaker low tracks to South IL. Rain/Snow line now in WI/IL Border.
-GEM: Eerily similar solution to past weekend storm: 2 low pressures. North low is in North IL. Rain/Snow line in WI/IL Border.
-GFS: Low through Central IL. Rain/Snow line in WI/IL border.
-DGEX: Low through Central IL. Rain/Snow line in WI/IL border.
-WRF: Low through Central IL. Rain/Snow Line north of Wisconsin/Illinois Border.

Consensus: NOGAPS and ECMWF suffer large changes. Luckily, GFS/DGEX/ECMWF/WRF have good agreement on placement of low pressure. Additionally, Rain/Snow line seems to be in excellent agreement for WI/IL border, the only exception being the WRF.
Will go on consistency and take DGEX forecast.

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