>Forecast Discussion February 28, 2011


Today is the end of meteorological winter.

After last night’s storm, will be looking forward to next storm.

At this time, models in no agreement. Below is Model Analyses.
ECMWF- Similar set-up to last night’s wintry storm. However, sharp cold outbreak behind system. Backside Precip will be snow. Track through North Illinois, weak.
NOGAPS- Tracks storm through Central IL. Rain/Snow line south, system stronger than ECMWF solution.
GEM- First system drops from Canada to deliver light rain. Next system immediately after tracks through North IL, stronger than ECMWF. System that dropped form Canada then goes farther south, is energized by Gulf of Mexico, and travels northeast.
GFS- Practically same storm as last night. Rain/Snow line in same area.
Conclusion: No agreement whatsoever. However, general idea is stronger than ECMWF. will prefer to go with NOGAPS/ECMWF solution.
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