>Substantial Severe Threat (2/25)

>

There is a potential for severe weather on February 25th, 2011.
The SPC highlights the potential for active weather throughout this period.

...DISCUSSION...    AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL    FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ON THU/D5.        ON WED/D4...MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A BROAD BELT OF SWLY FLOW ALOFT FROM    NRN MEXICO ACROSS THE CNTRL AND ERN U.S...AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH    AXIS THAT IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE BAJA CA/SRN CA    COAST WED MORNING. WELL AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE    WILL BEGIN TO STREAM NWD OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO AS A LARGE SURFACE    HIGH OVER THE ERN STATES GRADUALLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE.        BY THU MORNING...A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS    NWRN TX OR CNTRL OK WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS AS HIGH AS 60F UP    TO THE LOW CENTER....AND UP TO A WARM FRONT THAT WILL EXTEND EWD    ACROSS NRN OK/AR OR PERHAPS SRN MO. A SURFACE LOW AND POTENT UPPER    LEVEL JET STREAK WILL THEN CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS AND INTO    THE TN/OH VALLEYS BY 00Z.        UPPER LEVEL COOLING AND A PLUME OF STEEP DEEP LAYER LAPSE RATES WILL    OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR...CREATING A VERY UNSTABLE SITUATION.    ALTHOUGH THE EXACT GEOMETRY OF THE TROUGH MAY NOT BE WELL HANDLED    THIS FAR IN ADVANCE...THE CURRENT MODEL DEPICTION WOULD INDICATE THE    POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS ALONG THE DRYLINE/COLD    FRONT...RATHER THAN A MORE LINEAR STORM MODE. IN THIS SCENARIO...A    SUBSTANTIAL TORNADO THREAT COULD MATERIALIZE BY AFTERNOON AND    EVENING.  
BY FRI/D6...A SEVERE THREAT OF SOME FORM MAY REMAIN ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AS IT APPROACHES THE ERN SEABOARD...BUT TIMING OF THE FRONT AND PREDICTABILITY BECOME TOO LOW FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SEVERE AREAS."

Below is The Weather Centre's depiction of what could happen in this situation of a 
severe weather outbreak.

Advertisements
This entry was posted in Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s