This is the 2011 Spring Forecast for the United States. The Canadian and European forecasts will be issued at a later date.
I based this forecast off of a model called the CFS, which is an extremely long range forecast.
In April, I do expect the atmosphere to be relatively dry across much of the United States. As humid air begins to pump up from the Atlantic into the Southeast US, it will be met with a large dome of dry air that prohibits the moist air from reaching the other areas of the United States. While the humid air eventually does climb more north, it may ignite storms along the area where the dry air and humid air collide. Below, I have depicted a graphic on where the strong storms can be expected for April.
The reason I say relatively dry air is, due to the possibility of this model underestimating how slow the winter air mass moves off, this forecast may be a bit inaccurate and the US may be more humid than anticipated,
For temperatures, due to a continuing La Nina, I do expect frost to be quite common across the United States, as outlined in the below map.
This La Nina will continue throughout the Spring.
The May forecast gets better over much of the country, as the humid air prevails over the United States and overpowers the retreating winter air mass that hasn’t already left.
A special concern over this period is a very dry air mass over the Mexico/South Central US region. With a mess of humid air right next to that dry air mass, severe storms may constantly ignite on this border whenever some sort of disturbance comes. Below is the Severe Storm Forecast.
This forecast will be edited a couple times as it is only early February. A page will be posted with this forecast.
The Winter Forecasts will be removed on March 1st.