>Model Analysis and Forecast Accumulations #3

>ECMWF: No change. (North Track)

UKMET: Taking ECMWF track. (North Track)
GFS: Possibly just a hair east of the ECMWF track. (North Track)
GEM: A little east of what used to be the South Track. (South Track)
WRF: Taking ECMWF/UKMET track. ( North Track)
JMA: Taking GEM Track. (South Track)
GFS Ensembles: 12/12 Ensembles (North Track)
GEM Ensembles: 10/12 Ensembles (South Track)
MODEL DISCUSSION: The UKMET, WRF came to and joined the ECMWF/GFS up north with a track. With the GEM inconsistent and the JMA not being followed, both are discounted and a north track is approved.
QPF FORECAST (for North IL, South WI, Northwest IN)
HPC QPF: 1.25” to 1.75”
GFS QPF: 1.2”
NAM QPF: 1.92”
ECMWF QPF: 1.62”
With 15:1 snow ratios, the lowest amount able to be produced from the above numbers are about 15-17”.
SNOW ACCUMULATION FORECAST
Accuweather: 8-12”
GFS: 15-18”
NAM: 18-20”
Result from NAM QPF: 33”
NWS: 8-12”+
Piece from NWS chicago: STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTIES AS SYSTEM JUST STARTING TO COME

TOGETHER BUT INDICATIONS ARE THAT 12+ INCHES FOR NW IND AND PARTS OF NE IL QUITE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION: These are crazy high totals. They’ve been consistent so I trust them.
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