The ECMWF model has moderated itself and is now tracking through South IL.
The DGEX model has pushed northward and is now going through Central IL.
The GEM starts to go north, then suddenly drops to the Gulf Coast and continues on a very changed track.
The WRF, although still too far out in the time frame, says that early indications point to a northerly track.
The GFS says the storm will track along Tennessee moving Northeast.
HPC gives out high QPF rates
Much more interestingly, though, is a couple things for North IL/South WI
1. GFS predicts at least 6” to fall- currently trending towards 8-12”.
2. ECMWF QPF says 1.75” to 2” of snow (17-20 inches of snow!!)
3. HPC QPF image above indicates at least 5-7.5” of snow.
Model Consensus: A professional meteorologist mentioned that storms like these, although currently tracking south, often track north in the end.
Evidence of that happening is seen in the latest NCEP Ensemble, where all members are north of the 6z GFS.
The ECMWF may be trying to think ahead and stay north in event that the north track does happen.