>MIDWEST FORECAST DISCUSSION #1 FEB. 1-3RD

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MODEL FORECASTS

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The ECMWF model has moderated itself and is now tracking through South IL.
The DGEX model has pushed northward and is now going through Central IL.
The GEM starts to go north, then suddenly drops to the Gulf Coast and continues on a very changed track.
The WRF, although still too far out in the time frame, says that early indications point to a northerly track.
The GFS says the storm will track along Tennessee moving Northeast.
HPC gives out high QPF rates
Much more interestingly, though, is a couple things for North IL/South WI
1. GFS predicts at least 6” to fall- currently trending towards 8-12”.
2. ECMWF QPF says 1.75” to 2” of snow (17-20 inches of snow!!)
3. HPC QPF image above indicates at least 5-7.5” of snow.
Model Consensus: A professional meteorologist mentioned that storms like these, although currently tracking south, often track north in the end.
Evidence of that happening is seen in the latest NCEP Ensemble, where all members are north of the 6z GFS.
The ECMWF may be trying to think ahead and stay north in event that the north track does happen.
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4 Responses to >MIDWEST FORECAST DISCUSSION #1 FEB. 1-3RD

  1. >Nice analysis, as I am finally very optimistic that this storm will impact Central Illinois (Peoria, Illinois area) with good accumulating snow! Based on the fact that the ECMWF has been consistent with the Northerly track of the low and the GFS has been more consistent with a slightly Southern track of the low, I would think it reasonable to believe that the final track will take the low into the very Southern tip of Illinois and track it into South-Central Indiana and then Central Ohio. I feel this is a prime track for higher accumulations to affect North-Central – East Central Illinois into Central Indiana. I have a Facebook group with a few members that I post weather thoughts on, and I have set a preliminary accumulation of 6 – 9 inches for the Peoria/Bloomington Illinois areas, by Wednesday evening. I also believe there will be considerable blowing and drifting snow with this storm as well.

  2. Andrew says:

    >I think that the ECMWF QPF of 1.75-2'' is crazy from ORD.All I know is that at least 6'' can be expected at o'hare.

  3. Andrew says:

    >What's the name of the Facebook page?I would very much like to see it.

  4. >It is just my personal Facebook, but I have been thinking about either creating a separate Facebook for weather information or restarting my blog. I find yours inspiring as I have been interested in weather for a long long time. I am always known as the resident meteoroligist…lol. When I decide what I am going to do, I will send you the link. What I have now, is nothing compared to what you have going on.

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