>NORTHEAST STORM DISCUSSION

>January 24, 2011 Evening

Discussion…
12Z MODEL RUN DID NOT CLEAR UP MUCH CONFUSION.
ONCE AGAIN, GFS MODEL IS THE CLOSEST TO THE COAST. THE NAM BEGAN TO AGREE BUT NOW RELAYS THE STORM WILL FOLLOW THE NOGAPS MODEL AND STAY FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST.
AT THIS TIME, THE SNOWMAP AND ICEMAP ON THE EAST COAST STORM PAGE HAVE BEEN BASED ON THE GFS MODEL.
ADDING TO AN ALREADY DIFFICULT SITUATION, THE GEM AND UKMET MODELS INSTEAD RUN THE STORM NORTH THROUGH THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.
CURRENT THINKING… I AM TEMPTED TO PULL THE SNOWMAP AND ICEMAP OUT AND REVISE IT.
THE 12Z ECMWF MODEL DOES GO WITH THE GFS, SO WILL KEEP THE ICEMAP, SNOWMAP IN PLACE.
NO SURE-FIRE SITUATION IS FOR SURE, BUT…AT THIS TIME, AM LEANING FOR THE GFS TRACK AS THE NCEP ENSEMBLE AND SREF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AGREE.
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