>Midwest Winter Weather Discussion

>A WINTER STORM IS POISED TO AFFECT THE MIDWEST AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

AT THIS TIME, GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR A TRACK TO RANGE FROM THE WI/IL BORDER TO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. ECMWF MODEL HAS CREATED A COMPROMISE THAT APPEARS TO BE SMOOTH ENOUGH TO WORK.
HEAVIEST SNOW NOW APPEARS LIKELY IN THE WISCONSIN AREA. HOWEVER, IN THE SOUTH WI/ NORTH IL AREAS THAT DO RECEIVE AN ALL SNOW EVENT, A RESPECTABLE SNOW IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
THE FARTHER SOUTH YOU ARE FROM CENTRAL WISCONSIN, THE LOWER SNOW RATIOS, MEANING WETTER SNOW AND LESSER ACCUMULATIONS.
I AM NOT TOO FOND OF THE ECMWF ATTM, DUE TO A MAJOR FLUCTUATION OVER THE LAST 2-3 RUNS THAT MADE ME LOSE SOME CONFIDENCE WITH SETTING A DEFINITE TRACK.
HOWEVER, SINCE A SLIGHT MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLES AGREE, I WILL LEAN TO A CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TRACK, ADDING IN TO THE SOUTH PORTION DUE TO A CONSISTENT GFS THROUGH THE LAST 3-4 RUNS.
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