>MidWest/East Coast Storm Model Analyses


(If you don’t want to read all of this stuff, go to the bottom of this post for the discussion.)

ECMWF- The ECMWF has taken a big swing upwards. Now, it sweeps across the midsection of the US and emerges near the Carolinas. It then becomes a coast-hugger storm.

GFS- The GFS model, becoming more steady in the last few runs, has decided to move a little towards the Euro model (ECMWF). It is fairly close to the coast, until it gets into New England, where it is far enough away to prevent large accumulations.
For the Midwest portion of the run, it still takes the Gulf Coast track.
CMC- The CMC, which has been unique throughout the last few days, starts off in the Gulf Coast track. Suddenly, the low bounds up north and into New England, while the other low moves along as a coast-hugger. As the East Coast storm intensifies, the low that came north affecting the Midwest is absorbed.
NOGAPS- The NOGAPS, which suddenly went back to a northerly track yesterday, starts out in the Gulf Track. Another low follows it, affecting the Midwest. As the first low moves up the East Coast, the second low is absorbed. It is an extreme coast-hugger storm.
DGEX- The DGEX, which has favored the northern solution in the last many runs, has a low move up into New England, while another low intensifies as a coast-hugger storm. The midwest storm is absorbed.
UKMET- The UKMET, that yesterday favored no north track, now still continues with that idea. It is too far out for the East Coast storm.
WRF- The WRF, favoring a northerly track yesterday, says one low will sweep across the nation’s midsection, affecting the Midwest, while another low takes the Gulf Track, and at first is a coast-hugger storm. That is the end of the time frame available.
NAM- The NAM model is too hard to understand clearly, but it does look like it indicates a northern track as well.
Consensus of 6/8 models now agree, up from 5/8 yesterday afternoon, on a northern track.
Based on that, I too will agree with that track, taking a track that cuts through the US midsections, such as a WRF/NOGAPS track.
For the East Coast, consensus is also for a coast-hugger storm. I will agree with that at this time and take a ECMWF/NOGAPS track.
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