>Low Tracking to Gulf; North US is out.

>That’s right, folks. The North US is out of the snowstorm. The main and minor models are now tracking into the Gulf of Mexico. Main precip will be in Texas/Louisiana/Mississippi. Most snow in Plains areas, surrounded by chance for moderate snows.

This track and scenario is becoming pretty dang likely right now.
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3 Responses to >Low Tracking to Gulf; North US is out.

  1. >This is the pain that comes with following the models. You get excited for something and then watch it fizzle out.. run by agonizing run.I am still holding out faint hope that the low will rubberband Northward again. I thought from the onset that the Southern Illinois low track was to far North, but I still (just barely) believe that the low will be better organized than the models say, and will bowling ball right across central Arkansas thru Northern Mississipi and Alabama before making a left turn up the coast a bit. It just doesn't seem like there is enough troughing to make the low dig that far South. The snowfields are not extending that far South and with a airmass boundry (quasi-front) passing through Illinois tonight, I am hoping that this sets up a baroclinic zone further North (in the States mentioned) and that the low will follow it to the coast. This Gulf coast digging track is out of character for a La Nina pattern and we don't have a deep, established Artic air mass over the central part of the CONUS to cause this type of digging. Maybe I am just crushed that we will not be getting the proverbial "Big Daddy" here in Central Illinois.

  2. >Well, 6Z run kills by enthusiasm for this storm. I am now looking forward to the storm that will impact us January 1 – 4. Happy Holidays!

  3. Andrew says:

    >I've definitely decided to always watch the ECMWF model when a winter storm comes. In this storm, the Euro changed, and the other models followed it. I was holding onto that sliver of hope for lake effect, but, as you said, the 06z run also killed my hopes.Be optimistic on this next one- the NCEP Ensemble has been driving it into the Ohio Valley.Happy Holidays!

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