>Thanks for tuning in for this update. On the Left, there is the 06z precipitation projection for the storm. It shows significant precipitation throughout the Midwest. I believe the dot of heaviest precip should be rain in Missouri.
The image on the left is the GEM’s forecast. It depicts the most precip just like the GFS.
The image to the left is the 06z snow projection. They have gone down, but only steadily. Light blue is 10-12”, blue is 8-10”, light red is 12-15”. They have steadily been going down, but I have seen that the storm track has been going down, yet still maintaining the heavy snow in the same area. This increases confidence.
The image to the left is the Japanese model’s storm precip. The storm is still too far out to total it all up, but the makings may be similar to the GFS and GEM.
The image to the left here is the GFS forecast for the storm. Obviously, it is south so that it is nearly in Tennessee, which may have limited snow totals in North Illinois where we had focused on.
Image to the left is the HPC’s precip forecast. It goes with the GFS and GEM but may not hold all of the precip.
The final image is the NCEP Ensemble for the storm. The red line is the GFS line. The caution zone is Kentucky to Mississippi. However, anything can change at any time.
Summary: The GEM and GFS agree on the precip, along with possibly the HPC. We’ll have to see. Main precip still looks like N. IL to Nebraska, Missouri, into the East Coast.