>Let’s get right to it!!
The WRF is printing out some very interesting changes. They say that the Alberta Clipper will be stronger and more widespread. It will stick around longer.
The WRF is indicating maybe a half inch of precip from the storm. In snow factors, it is about 2-4 inches.
The WRF type of precip maps are indicating snow for the entire event of this clipper.
WRF Temperatures show that temps should be fine for this event.
Moving to a CMC model, they show that the clipper will strike Chicago right on target. They show it sticking around for about a day.
Moving on to the GFS, they show the snow reaching Chicago faster than the WRF. The WRF says the snow will hit first in Rockford, but the GFS spreads the snow around the Wisconsin Illinois area.
Then, the GFS shows snow sticking around for about a full day before dissipating.
Temps should be fine.
Lake effect snow will stick around in Indiana and Michigan for literally DAYS before another system comes through.
Onto the Navy NOGAPS model, they show the clipper with less strength striking the Michigan area but still affecting both sides of Lake Michigan.
But they also show the thickness to be a bit high in Central Illinois.
However, considering that the count of strike to not is 3-0 (but now 3-1 with this model), the probability of this scenario is low- 25%.
Into a mass ensemble run, 11 out of 12 ensembles say that the clipper will directly strike Chicago. The other one shows it striking the heart of Central Illinois. 12 out of the 12 say the thickness will be fine for snow.
So quite a big chance for the event to occur.