>Arctic Oscillation 2010-2011 Winter Forecast

>

ARCTIC OSCILLATION

(These oscillations are all data from the Climate Prediction Center,

or CPC. You guys rock!)


For our 2nd update, we will be focusing in on several Oscillations, including this one. The Arctic Oscillation is an atmospheric pattern. Simple enough. However, I know little about any oscillations we will be discussing. I do know how to read maps though. So let’s begin.


The CPC data runs several forecasts. I took the liberty of scanning them over, and found they varied quite a bit. Long range, the forecasts indicated a turn to negative, but on

e also had a positive. A Positive period is when there are warmer temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere. I had taken note of the NOAA’s forecast, seeing as they indicated slightly warmer temperatures may be in the northern tier of the country, anddefinitely warmer down south.

However, Accuweather gets right into that and says ‘colder and snowier’ for the n

orthern tier. These, both being great services, struck me as mystified. Both Positive and negative had characteristics for this winter’s forecasts. Below is the images of positive and negative outlooks. The positive phase is on the left; the negative phase is on the right.



I have decided that it would be more correct at this time to veer towards the negative side at the right. I am predicting a NEGATIVE PHASE for this winter. However, that may surely change. Stay posted.


NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (NAO)


The above graphic shows the phases of a North Atlantic Oscillation. I looked at this cautiously. But look closely at New England in the negative phase. Looks like last year with the Snowicane doesn’t it? Yes it does. I believe we are either going to be in a LIGHT POSITIVE PHASE or LIGHT NEGATIVE PHASE for this winter. Certainly not a snowicane again. And the CPC data agrees with me.


PACIFIC NORTH-AMERICAN OSCILLATION


Looking over the CPC’s forecasts, it seemed that most of them were pointing for a Positive phase in this oscillation. In the ensembles, they all pointed to eventually going towards negative after being positive. Seeing this data, I analyzed the phases for Positive and Negative Pacific North-American oscillations. Unfortunately, there were none, so I have declared a TEMPORARY POSITIVE PHASE, followed by a NEGATIVE PHASE.


ANTARCTIC OSCILLATION


No information regarding this. However, the outlooks are saying the current positive run will fall into a BRIEF NEGATIVE PHASE, then turning into a POSITIVE PHASE.


LA NINA


La Nina will be in full swing, creating this winter’s snow and weather. That is all.




Thanks for viewing my second edition of my 2010-2011 winter forecast! Updates to sections will be posted whenever new data comes in. They will be called ‘2nd version; whatever-number update’.

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2 Responses to >Arctic Oscillation 2010-2011 Winter Forecast

  1. Greg says:

    >Forecasters have really bought into a very dry Winter/Spring in the West on the basis of a significant La Nina. My take on it is that the Arctic Oscillation will overpower just as it did in December. January has been dry but somewhere in February/March I sense that significant rainfall will bring a parade a cyclones and deep moisture back into the picture courtesy of the Arctic Oscillation.

  2. Andrew says:

    >A few months ago, the forecasters were saying how this La Nina would fade out in mid-year.Looking at charts from the CPC, it's looking like, if la nina should begin to fade, it will become noticeable in the August-September time frame. However, 3 of the 4 Nino sections have the general forecast outlined to stay as it is right now or have slight fluctuations.One Nino actually leads downwards in the August September time frame.While I believe your Feb.- March prediction will come together in one way or another, I'm actually thinking it may happen earlier, say early Feb.With Accuweather's new winter forecast out (which has been on the ball so far this winter), there isn't much room for the rest of the snow and rain to squeeze into the North US.As March warms up, I expect more frequent periods of rain, with slightly cooler temperatures overall.

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