Hello everyone! This is the second version of the official winter forecast made by the Weather Centre.
Credits: NOAA, NWS
All sloppy-looking graphics made by me.
So, let’s begin…well, it’s hard to begin anywhe
re! There’s so much to say!
So I guess we’ll start off with the most important.
NORTHERN HALF OF U.S.
Okay, let’s start off with our Northerners of the U.S. Obviously, last year, our Northern
Midwest folks had less than average snow
and a bit of warmth. Of course, the memorable in the New England area. So, let’s start with the New England area.
For our Snowicane victims, do not fear this winter. Your snow will not be nearly as bad as last year. I know, big relief. How ever, we will deal with bitter cold in the northern half of New England. Average or slightly above average snow will occur in the majority of New England. In the southernmost area of New England, it is an increased risk for ice storms. We will call this area the ‘ICY ZONE’.
In the Icy Zone, people will experience large temperature swings. Rain, snow, and sleet with freezing rain will accompany storms with these temperature swings. Snow will accompany the area shaded in blue. In that area, labeled the Cold/Average Snow zone, people will experience bitter cold. In addition, average snow will happen, possibly slightly above average.
In the Great Lakes, lake effect snow will not go away. It is unknow
n what wil
l happen in many of the lakes. However, Lake Michigan, having warmer than normal waters at this time, will produce more lake effect snow.
The below graphic will mention the areas and list the effects this winter.
Cities such as Detroit, Minneapolis, Chicago will be getting the heaviest snow.
The pink area is the Icy Zone.
The dark blue area, of course, is the heaviest snow. By this, NOAA and Accuweather have identified it as unsure, but Accuweather is confident that the area will get a lot of snow.
(Joe Bastardi, Chief Long-Range Forecaster, Accuweather: “…Heck of a lot of snow this winter.”)
The NOAA, on the other hand, will only identify the Chicago and Detroit areas as ‘Above Average’, with little or no mention of Minneapolis. In addition, the Great Lakes and anyone else in the ‘Heaviest Snow’ area will be under an increased ice risk. So it’s almost like a double-whammy for the folks up north.
The Northwest is in for quite a wild winter. This winter will feature wet, soggy conditions in cities such as Spokane, Washington and Seattle, Washington. Thunderstorms and rain, not snow, will occur in those areas. Sorry, kids. Not much for snowdays.
However, if you live in the Mountains, snow will occur there. Thus above average snow should occur in the mountains. In the graphic below, it explains.
Snow will occur in the mountains, but rainy conditions in all areas.
SOUTHERN HALF U.S.
Not much winter will come to the South. Because of that, a graphic will not be displayed.
Dry conditions will happen across the south with severedroughts expected.
Warm temperatures will happen as well.
Heaviest snow across the Great Lakes into New England. Icy Zone through the Nation’s Midsection. Dry and warm down in the South. Wet and soggy out Northwest, with snowy mountains. Temperature swings in the Icy Zone and Heaviest Snow; more in the Icy Zone. Possible tornadic situation in the Southeast this winter. (If storms like that are propelled upward, it spells snow, rain, and ice.). Extra Lake effect snow from Lake Michigan. Bitterly cold in Alaska.
(These oscillations are all data from the Climate Prediction Center,
or CPC. You guys rock!)
For our 2nd update, we will be focusing in on several Oscillations, including this one. The Arctic Oscillation is an atmospheric pattern. Simple enough. However, I know little about any oscillations we will be discussing. I do know how to read maps though. So let’s begin.
The CPC data runs several forecasts. I took the liberty of scanning them over, and found they varied quite a bit. Long range, the forecasts indicated a turn to negative, but on
e also had a positive. A Positive period is when there are warmer temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere. I had taken note of the NOAA’s forecast, seeing as they indicated slightly warmer temperatures may be in the northern tier of the country, and definitely warmer down south.
However, Accuweather gets right into that and says ‘colder and snowier’ for the n
orthern tier. These, both being great services, struck me as mystified. Both Positive and negative had characteristics for this winter’s forecasts. Below is the images of positive and negative outlooks. The positive phase is on the left; the negative phase is on the right.
I have decided that it would be more correct at this time to veer towards the negative side at the right. I am predicting a NEGATIVE PHASE for this winter. However, that may surely change. Stay posted.
NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (NAO)
The above graphic shows the phases of a North Atlantic Oscillation. I looked at this cautiously. But look closely at New England in the negative phase. Looks like last year with the Snowicane doesn’t it? Yes it does. I believe we are either going to be in a LIGHT POSITIVE PHASE or LIGHT NEGATIVE PHASE for this winter. Certainly not a snowicane again. And the CPC data agrees with me.
PACIFIC NORTH-AMERICAN OSCILLATION
Looking over the CPC’s forecasts, it seemed that most of them were pointing for a Positive phase in this oscillation. In the ensembles, they all pointed to eventually going towards negative after being positive. Seeing this data, I analyzed the phases for Positive and Negative Pacific North-American oscillations. Unfortunately, there were none, so I have declared a TEMPORARY POSITIVE PHASE, followed by a NEGATIVE PHASE.
No information regarding this. However, the outlooks are saying the current positive run will fall into a BRIEF NEGATIVE PHASE, then turning into a POSITIVE PHASE.
La Nina will be in full swing, creating this winter’s snow and weather. That is all.
Thanks for viewing my second edition of my 2010-2011 winter forecast! Updates to sections will be posted whenever new data comes in. They will be called ‘2nd version; whatever-number update’.
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