>Day 2 outlooks

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SPC AC 080558

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CDT SAT MAY 08 2010

VALID 091200Z – 101200Z

…NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST…

…SYNOPSIS…
MID-LVL IMPULSE NEAR 43N/145W AT 05Z IS EXPECTED TO DIG INTO THE GRT
BASIN REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE…LWR-AMPLITUDE
WAVES WILL CREST THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE PD. AT
THE SFC…TAIL-END OF THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE GULF COASTAL REGION
NOW WILL REDEVELOP NWD THROUGH CNTRL TX BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

…CNTRL PLAINS…
LARGE-SCALE SLY RETURN FLOW WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE APCHG UPR TROUGH AND BEGIN TO TRANSPORT A RICH
GULF AIR MASS INTO CNTRL/SRN TX. A LEAD IMPULSE WILL LIKELY ENHANCE
ISENTROPIC LIFT/ELEVATED TSTMS OVER PARTS OF OK/N TX AS EARLY AS 12Z
SUNDAY WITH ACTIVITY GRADUALLY SPREADING EWD INTO THE MID-SOUTH
DURING THE AFTN. WRN-FRINGES OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXPAND WNW FROM
CNTRL/ERN OK TO CNTRL/ERN KS SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SSWLY LLJ
INTENSIFIES TO 50 KTS AND CONSIDERABLE MOISTENING OCCURS IN THE
H85-H7 LAYER. STORMS WILL BE ROOTED ATOP A STABLE LAYER…BUT
MUCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR AOA 45 KTS WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLD ORGANIZED STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL.

…SW TX…
BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO STRONGLY HEAT OVER THE MARFA/STOCKTON
PLATEAUS SUNDAY AFTN AND AUGMENT DIURNAL AND INCREASINGLY MOIST
UPSLOPE FLOW. ISOLD HIGH-BASED TSTMS WILL BE PSBL OVER THE MTNS BY
LATE AFTN WITH ONE OR TWO CELLS ROOTING INTO THE RICHER MOISTURE
ALONG THE ERN SLOPES IF CINH CAN ERODE SUFFICIENTLY. HAVE ADDED LOW
PROBABILITIES THAT AN ISOLD SUPERCELL MAY EVOLVE WITH PRIMARILY
LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL GIVEN 40 KTS OF WLY VERTICAL SHEAR AND STEEP
MID-LVL LAPSE RATES. ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN BEFORE REACHING THE
TRANSPECOS DURING THE EVENING.

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