>Days 4-8 Severe weather threat

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ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 070842
SPC AC 070842

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0342 AM CDT FRI MAY 07 2010

VALID 101200Z – 151200Z

…DISCUSSION…
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT FOR SVRL DAYS AT
MAINTAINING A COHERENT UPR TROUGH AS IT EJECTS ENE FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS TO THE PLAINS ON MONDAY /DAY 4/. ALTHOUGH 00Z GFS/ECMWF ARE
SLIGHTLY LESS AMPLIFIED/FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE…ALL INDICATIONS
CONTINUE TO POINT TO A STRONG SFC LOW MIGRATING ACROSS NRN KS DURING
THE AFTN WITH STRONG SLY FLOW TRANSPORTING MID-UPR 60S DEW POINTS
NWD ALONG ERN EDGE OF A STOUT EML. EXPECT STORMS WILL INITIATE
ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM CNTRL KS INTO WRN OK BY MID-MONDAY
AFTN…THEN MATURE INTO SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE MOIST WARM SECTOR
ACROSS CNTRL-ERN KS/OK DURING THE EVENING. FCST
THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC PROFILES SUGGEST POSSIBILITY OF A
SIGNIFICANT SVR EVENT…INCLUDING STRONG TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE
HAIL.

THEREAFTER…THE UPR WAVE IS EXPECTED TO FILL AND SHEAR ENE TOWARD
THE GRTLKS REGION. IN ITS WAKE…ANOTHER MID-LVL WAVE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE GRT BASIN REGION…BUT GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE ON THE
HANDLING OF THIS FEATURE. ADDITIONALLY…IT IS UNCLEAR ON WHERE THE
FRONT THAT FOLLOWS THE FORMER WAVE WILL BE LOCATED GIVEN WHAT WILL
LIKELY BE A COUPLE DAYS OF EPISODIC TSTM CLUSTERS THAT WILL AUGMENT
THE FRONT. AS SUCH…BEYOND DAY 4…THE DECREASE IN PATTERN
PREDICTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE THE DRAWING OF ADDITIONAL SVR AREAS.

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